What happened
Deloitte Canada expects the economy to grow 0.7% in 2026, with a rebound late in the year, and 2% in 2027, as reported by Talent Canada. The forecast comes from the firm's summer outlook, released on a Thursday after a weak first quarter.
Chief economist Dawn Desjardins pointed to trade tensions, energy costs, supply chain pressures and low confidence as the drags. Statistics Canada reported that growth stalled in the first quarter, a second straight quarterly decline that meets the technical definition of a recession. Desjardins says there is little evidence one is underway. In her view, contraction is concentrated in sectors facing heavy tariffs, such as steel, aluminum and lumber.
The biggest risk is still trade with the US. The CUSMA renewal deadline is July 1. The forecast assumes Canada keeps relatively tariff-free access to the US market. It also assumes government moves, including cutting interprovincial trade barriers and speeding up major project approvals, will bring business investment back in 2027. Inflation rose to 3.2% in May, though the report expects energy prices to ease.
Why it matters if you are hiring
The outlook points to a hiring pattern many employers will recognize: cautious this year, busier next. Desjardins says companies are largely sitting on the sidelines until trade is clearer, and that investment, and the jobs that come with it, should pick up in 2027.
That has practical effects. Employers in tariff-exposed sectors such as steel, aluminum and lumber face the hardest choices now, while others may find the next 12 months a window to hire without a scramble. Skilled people tend to be harder to find once deferred projects start moving at the same time. The report names infrastructure, defence, critical minerals and resources as growth areas, which points to demand for engineers, trades, project and operations leads, and finance staff to run the work.
The July 1 CUSMA date matters too. A renewal would reduce uncertainty. A failure to renew, or new US tariffs, would hit exports and confidence, according to the report. Hiring plans built for only one outcome are fragile.
One thing to do this week
Write down two headcount plans for the next 12 months: one if CUSMA is renewed and one if it is not. For each, list the roles you would add, hold or fill with contract staff, and the trigger that moves you from one plan to the other. Then flag the 2 or 3 roles that would be slow to fill, and start talking to candidates for those now.
Traverse has placed operations, finance, manufacturing and contract talent for employers across Canada since 1997, and we help hiring teams staff up quickly, or flex with contract hires, when the picture clears.